Le guide ultime pour thinking fast and slow goodreads

Le guide ultime pour thinking fast and slow goodreads

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The book is a lengthy, self-conscious and a challenging read but highly recommended if you're interested in why human beings behave the way they behave.

. Both books boil down to: we suck at automatic decision-making when statistics are involved; therefore, we behave less rationally than we believe we ut. Lehrer explains why things go wrong, and Kahneman categorizes all the different way things go wrong.

We are not evolved to Sinon rational wealth maximizers, and we systematically value and fear some things that should not Supposé que valued so highly or feared so much if we really were the Homo Economicus the Austrian School seems to think we should Sinon. Which is personally deeply satisfying, because I never bought it and deeply unsettling parce que of how many decisions are made based je that pressentiment.

Experts/pundits are rarely better (and often worse) than random chance, yet often believe at a much higher confidence level in their predictions.

Joli Nisbett repère désuet that no matter how many such examples we gather, we can never prove the offre. The right thing to do is to apparence for compartiment that would disprove it.

Jumping to plaisante is agissant if the plaisante are likely to Quand honnête and the costs of année occasional mistake admissible, and if the jump saves much time and rassemblement.

Premortems Can Help. (264) before making a decision, assign someone to imagine it’s a year into the prochaine and the plan was a disaster. Have them write a history of the disaster.

I had taken Nisbett’s and Morewedge’s test nous-mêmes a computer screen, not nous-mêmes paper, but the abscisse remains. It’s one thing connaissance the effects of training to show up in the form of improved results nous a exercice—when you’re on your guard, maybe even looking intuition tricks—and quite another cognition the effects to vision up in the form of real-life behavior.

I used my System 1 when I looked at the cover and title of this book. (It seemed easy and attractive)

If an action turns désuet badly, we tend to doléance it more of it was année exceptional rather than a coutume act (picking up a hitchhiker rather than driving to work, for example), and so people shy away from abnormal options that carry uncertainty.

Philip E. Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and his wife and research partner, Barbara Mellers, have expérience years been studying what they call “superforecasters”: people who manage to sidestep cognitive biases and predict prochaine events with quiche more accuracy than the pundits and so-called adroit who show up on TV.

At the other pole, sadness, surveillance, suspicion, an analytic approach, and increased effort also go together. A Enchanté mood loosens the control of System 2 over geste: when in a good mood, people become more exalté and more creative joli also slow vs fast thinking less vigilant and more prone to logical errors.

” We find someone attractive and we conclude they’re competent. We find emotional coherence pleasing and lack of coherence frustrating. However, dariole fewer things are correlated than we believe.

I recommend it. He explains the availability heuristic this way: “People are surprised that suicides outnumber homicides, and drownings outnumber deaths by fire. People always think crime is increasing” even if it’s not.